UPDATE: 2025-08-02 08:28 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Joker 2 Crashes Below Original $42-47 Million Projections With a $40 Million Debut
This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with altered box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.
Joker: Folie à Deuxis expected to debut with a total less than half of the original installment. The DC comic book movie, which re-teams director Todd Phillips and star Joaquin Phoenix, is a sequel to 2019’sJoker, which made over $1 billion at the worldwide box office against a roughly $70 million budget. The sequel, which features multiple musical numbers and co-stars Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn, has a price tag more than two-and-a-half times as large, as the reportedJoker: Folie à Deuxbudgetis $190 million.
PerVariety, as of Sunday morning,Joker: Folie à Deuxis projected to take in a three-day opening weekend total of$40 millionat the domestic box office. This is the total being reported by Warner Bros., though other estimates show it hitting $39 million. Either way, this falls far below the initial industry projections of about $70 million and even Saturday morning’s projected range of $42 to $47 million. This issignificantly less than half of the $96.2 million the original 2019 movie earned in its domestic debut, making its budget back over the course of a single weekend.
WhileJoker 2still took No. 1 on the domestic chart, the gap between its total and the three-day grosses of the movies below it on the chart is significantly smaller than expected. In fact, the No. 2 titles, the holdover DreamWorks animated titleThe Wild Robot, has earned just under half of the new DC comic book movie’s debut during its second weekend with a haul of $18.7 million, representing a fairly solid week-on-week drop of just 48%. See the full domestic Top 5 below:
1
$40 million
$40 million (weekend 1)
2
$18.7 million
$63.9 million (weekend 2)
3
$10.3 million
$265.5 million (weekend 5)
4
$5.3 million
$47.2 million (weekend 3)
5
$2.8 million
$32.6 million (weekend 4)
Other thanJoker: Folie à Deux, every title on the domestic Top 5 was also on the chart the previous weekend. Making room for the comic book movie, the previous No. 4 title - the Indian hitDevara: Part 1featuringRRRstar N. T. Rama Rao Jr. - fell from the Top 10 completely. Outside the Top 10,Francis Ford Coppola’s sci-fi passion project is also falling fast. After the disappointingMegalopolisopening weekendsaw it debut at No. 6, it has fallen to No. 10 with an estimated $1.05 million, representing a shattering 73% drop.
Two mid-level releases that opened oppositeJokerare also populating the remainder of the domestic Top 10. One isthe YouTuber-led featureSam and Colby: The Legends of Paranormalat No. 6with a $2 million haul from just 302 theaters. Meanwhile, theWondersequelWhite Birdhas quietly fluttered to No. 9 with an estimated $1.4 to $1.7 million from 980 theaters. The movie has performed staggeringly well with audiences, earning an A+ CinemaScore and a 98% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, so it could potentially climb higher in the coming weeks if it becomes a word-of-mouth hit.
What This Opening Weekend Means For Joker: Folie à Deux
The Movie Could Still Break Even
This disappointing opening weekend total is likely the result of the overwhelmingly negative reaction to the movie. In addition toJoker: Folie à Deuxreviewsearning the movie a 32% score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, it has a matching 32% audience score tabulated from more than 1,000 verified users. The movie hasscored poorly across the board on popular review platforms, compounding its dismal D+ CinemaScore with a 4.1 out of 10 on Meteoritic, a 5.3 out of 10 on IMDb, and a 2.5 out of 5 on Letterboxd.
This might be just enough for the movie to break even….
However, thisdoes not necessarily mean that the movie will be a failure. While it seems unlikely to build strong word-of-mouth viewership, if it continues to grow in proportion to the original, it could eventually climb to$448 millionor higher worldwide. This might be just enough for the movie to break even if it doesn’t crater in its second weekend and is buoyed by theJoker: Folie à Deuxcastearning Oscar nominations in early 2025. According toVariety’s box office report, sources say that the movie’s break-even point is likely somewhere around $450 million.
Our Take On The Weekend Box Office
Joker 2’s No. 1 Status Is Already Under Threat
While the schedule for the second weekend of October is largely clear of blockbusters due to studios steering clear ofJoker: Folie à Deux, it seems thatthe sequel’s position at No. 1 on the chart is shakyat best. While it could still claim the top slot during its second weekend in theaters, especially if the movies below it on the chart have similar week-on-week drops, it seems highly likely that it will be toppled from its perch in two weeks by theupcomingSmile 2, a sequel to a hit which became the highest-grossing horror movie of 2022.
Joker: Folie a Deux
Cast
Joker: Folie à Deux is the sequel to Todd Phillips' critically acclaimed comic book thriller Joker. Reprising his Academy Award-winning performance as the failed comedian Arthur Fleck, Joaquin Phoenix revisits the iconic DC character alongside Lady Gaga, who makes her debut as Joker’s lover Harley Quinn in this standalone continuity of the DC Universe.
