The2025 Oscarsceremony is happening on March 2nd, and several of the most prestigious awards are still up for grabs. Many of the acting categories are still wide open, with the majority of the precursors (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, etc.) nominating different actors from one another. This makes for an extremely exciting race that can’t easily be predicted, even by the most experienced of experts. The only acting category that’s even remotely considered “locked” is Best Supporting Actor, where Kieran Culkin leads the experts’2025 Oscar predictions.
However, even this category isn’t as secure as many would like to suggest. Some of thestrongest performances of 2025find themselves in this category, from names like Guy Pearce inThe Brutalistto Jeremy Strong inThe Apprentice. While these actors may not have been the faces of their respective films, they left strong impressions on the audience that shouldn’t be ignored when predicting the winner.
Guy Pearce’s Performance In The Brutalist Deserves To Win Best Supporting Actor At The 2025 Oscars
Pearce Completely Disappeared Into This Complex Role
While the concept of any particular performance being “better” than another is clearly subjective, Guy Pearce’s work inThe Brutalistwould have my vote in this year’s Best Supporting Actor category. While Keiran Culkin is brilliant as always, his performance feels less transformative than Pearce’s - who managed to fully disappear into this complex character.He plays the wealthy client of protagonist Laszlo Toth, who grows jealous of the latter’s architectural creativity as the story progresses.
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Among the Best Supporting Actor nominees,Guy Pearce feels like the one who delivered the most empathetic and complex performance.The Brutalistsimply wouldn’t be the same without him, and it’s his volatile relationship with Adrien Brody’s protagonist that pushes much of the narrative forward in the first and second acts.The ending of Guy Pearce’s character arc inThe Brutalistalso makes him the most memorable candidate in this category, as he plays a crucial role in the emotional climax of the film.
How I Would Rank The Nominees For Best Supporting Actors For The 2025 Oscars
It’s An Excellent Lineup This Year, But Pearce Lands On Top
While I’m placing Guy Pearce at #1, it’s hard to disagree with popular consensus much longer - Kieran Culkin is a clear #2. His work inA Real Painis some of his best to date; the character is both likable and frustrating, but his actions are always carried with a tangible empathy that only somebody as confident as Culkin could pull off. He’s an ideal contrast to Jesse Eisenberg’s protagonist, and that’s whyhis character stands out so effectively within the narrative.Culkin is a deserving frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor, and it’ll be excellent to see him win.
Culkin’sSuccessionco-starJeremy Strong gets my #3 vote for his equally memorable turn inThe Apprentice, where he played the shady lawyer Roy Cohn. He managed to perfectly demonstrate the innate comedy of such a villainous figure without negating the dangers and instabilities of people like him existing in our society. Strong would also be a deserving winner, but he lacks the precursors to make that a possibility. From there, both Yura Borisov and Edward Norton would occupy the bottom two spots, though I’d give a slight edge to Borisov for his eclectic sense of melancholic humor.
Can Guy Pearce Beat Kieran Culkin At The 2025 Oscars?
There’s A Very Narrow Chance He Could Win The Award
Saying that Guy Pearceshouldwin the Best Supporting Actor Oscar and saying that hewillare two very different statements. Though I’m firmly in the camp that he deserves to bring home the award, it’s going to be a long and difficult road to get there. Culkin has firmly positioned himself as the frontrunner, with nominations at all the major precursors and plenty of passion behind his narrative.The only thing holding him back isA Real Pain’s absence from the Best Picture lineup, which may give Pearce a slight advantage.
If Pearce manages to win at Critics Choice, BAFTA, or SAG (the first of which is the most likely), then he could begin to make waves in the category and destabilize Culkin’s lead.
Ultimately, there are still a few awards ceremonies before the Oscars roll around in March, and any of them could turn the tide. If Pearce manages to win at Critics Choice, BAFTA, or SAG (the first of which is the most likely), then he could begin to make waves in the category and destabilize Culkin’s lead. However, if somebody like Jeremy Strong or Edward Norton pulls off a surprise victory, it’s hard to imagine Pearce coming back from that. TheBest Supporting Actor Oscar is almost within Kieran Culkin’s grasp, but there’s still time for somebody else to surprise us.
Oscars
The Oscars, also known as The Academy Awards, is an annual awards show celebrating workers in the film industry for their artistic and technical abilities. The Oscars are often considered the most prestigious awards show in the industry and date back to 1929. The 96th Academy Awards will be held on August 13, 2025, and be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel on ABC.
