The2025 Golden Globesare complete, and the winners in each movie category could have a significant impact on the2025 Oscars. Now that the new year is upon us, awards season is in full effect, with the 82nd Golden Globes ceremony marking the start of a busy two months until the 97th Academy Awards. On the movie side,The BrutalistandEmilia Pérezproved to be among the biggest of the2025 Golden Globes winners. They won the most awards among the film nominees, withEmilia Pérezwinning four Golden Globesafter its leading ten nominations.
Although it’s usually argued that theGolden Globes don’t matter for the Oscars, there is a strong connection between the two awards shows. They are the two biggest of the season, with the Globes working to change its reputation in recent years. The mass love forThe BrutalistandEmilia Pérezis evidence of that, as well as some moresurprising 2025 Golden Globes winners. There’s certainly room for the major Oscars races to shift further, but some adjustments in expected nominees and frontrunners to win must happen now.
What The Brutalist & Emilia Pérez’s Best Motion Picture Golden Globes Wins Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Picture Race
The Brutalist Won Best Motion Picture - Drama & Emilia Pérez Won Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
As part of their overall strong performances at the Golden Globes,The BrutalistandEmilia Pérezboth won the biggest film awards.The BrutalistbeatConclave,A Complete Unknown,Dune: Part Two, and more to win Best Motion Picture - Drama, whileEmilia PérezbeatAnora,Wicked,The Substance, and others to win Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy. That’s a big deal for the Oscars when it comes to the Best Picture race. The Oscars' Best Picture winner has also been a Golden Globes winner in either category 62% of the time - or 51 of 81 times.
Oscars 2025 Nominations: Predicting The Winners Of All 23 Categories
The Oscars 2025 are rapidly approaching, and with nominations now officially announced, we’re predicting the winners of all 23 categories.
Historically,the Golden Globes winner for Best Motion Picture - Drama has higher odds of also winning the Oscar for Best Picture. It’s happened 40 times in the previous 81 years overall. However, that nearly 50% match rate is much lower in the modern era. Since 2000, the Golden Globes and Oscars have only matched Best Drama and Best Picture nine times. That’s a 37.5% match rate. There’s still every reason to believeThe Brutalistwill be nominated for Best Picture, but whether it can go on to win it all is a different story.
Oppenheimer is the most recent film to win Best Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes and Best Picture at the Oscars
Emilia Pérez’s Golden Globes win for Musical or Comedy is not predictive of a Best Picture win. The Netflix musical is viewed as a lock for a nomination, but its odds of winning are low. Since the Golden Globes introduced the Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy category, the winner has only won Best Picture at the Oscars 11 out of 72 times.Emilia Pérezwould have to overcome the 15% match rate. The fact that the film is also a bit of a more divisive release means it could struggle with the preferential ballot used for Best Picture.
This leaves the Best Picture race in a bit of uncertainty.Anorawas shut out at the Golden Globes, whileConclaveonly won one award. Both films could start to lose ground toThe Brutalistpotentially, especially as the film begins mounting cases to win in other major Oscar categories.Emilia Pérezcould still earn plenty of Oscar nominations and may ultimately play well enough with the growing international Academy Awards voting body to come out on top. Since both were already in our top fourpredicted Best Picture 2025 Oscars nominees, they continue to make cases to be higher.
What Brady Corbet’s Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars Best Director Race
Brady Corbet Remains The Favorite To Win
In addition to giving the acceptance speech forThe Brutalistin Best Motion Picture - Drama, Brady Corbet first had a chance to share his passion for the film when he won Best Director at the Golden Globes. By beatingpredicted 2025 Oscars Best Director nomineesJacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), and Edward Berger (Conclave), Corbet has further solidified his standing in this race. This continued the Golden Globes trend of Best Director and Best Motion Picture - Drama going to the same film, which has happened for seven straight years.
Brady Corbet’s continued wins before the Oscars help strengthen his case no matter what happens withThe Brutalistin Best Picture. History shows that Best Director and Best Picture align 71% of the time. IfThe Brutalistcontinues its trajectory to a possible Best Picture win,Corbet should win Best Director at the Oscars, too. If it doesn’t, Corbet now has a Golden Globes win and a Silver Lion win at Venice, giving him two significant wins to build a case for why he could be a Best Director Oscar winner whose film doesn’t win the grand prize.
What Adrien Brody & Sebastian Stan’s Best Actor Golden Globes Wins Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Actor Race
Adrien Brody Won For Best Actor - Drama & Sebastian Stan Won For Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
The standing of the Best Actor Oscars 2025 category feels significantly different after the Golden Globes. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) won for Best Actor in Drama, while Sebastian Stan (A Different Man) won for Best Actor in Musical or Comedy. Brody’s win came againstpredicted 2025 Oscars Best Actor nomineeslike Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing). Globes voters' appreciation of Stan was evident with his double nomination, and he beat Hugh Grant (Heretic), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), and others to win.
The fallout of the 2025 Golden Globes puts Adrien Brody back in the driver’s seat for the Oscar. There was some thought that the Globes could give Chalamet or Fiennes a big early win, but that honor has instead gone to Brody - who previously had only been recognized by various critic groups. It’s worth notingthe Golden Globes' Best Actor - Drama winner has won the Oscar 10 of the last 12 times. He’s now on the inside track to his second Oscar win for Best Actor if he can keep up the momentum.
Sebastian Stan was considered to be in the mix for an Oscar nomination but more so on the outside looking in. Now, he’s certainly worth considering more seriously for one of the Best Actor nomination slots. Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are essentially locked into three of the spots, while Domingo is widely expected to earn favor from his peers. That could leave Stan competing with Daniel Craig (Queer) for the final spot. Craig might still be in the lead for the nomination at this point, but at least Stan’s momentum is growing.
What Demi Moore & Fernanda Torres' Best Actress Golden Globes Wins Mean For The 2025 Oscars Best Actress Race
Demi Moore Won For Best Actress - Musical Or Comedy & Fernanda Torres Won For Best Actress - Drama
There was reason to believe that the Golden Globes would further lift the favorites in awards season for Best Actress, but Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres' wins shook up the race. Moore (The Substance) was in the more competitive category at the Globes and beat outpredicted Best Actress 2025 Oscar nomineesin Mikey Madison (Anora), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez). Torres' nomination forI’m Still Herespoke volumes about how much voters liked her performance, but Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) were still considered the favorites to win.
Demi Moore Can Absolutely Win The 2025 Best Actress Oscar Now
Demi Moore just won a Golden Globe for The Substance, and it means she can absolutely win the 2025 Oscar for Best Actress in the coming weeks.
It was already thought that the Best Actress category was wide open, and the Golden Globes giving Moore and Torres the wins solidifies that. This puts several actresses firmly in the mix for an Oscar nomination.It’s far too early to tell who is the favoriteand if this loss ultimately hurtsMikey Madison’s Oscars odds. However, there was already a strong push for Demi Moore to win the Oscar, and those calls will only get louder. She’s arguably the biggest winner of the entire Golden Globes ceremony when it comes to the Oscars.
What Kieran Culkin’s Best Supporting Actor Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars
Kieran Culkin Has Cemented His Oscars Frontrunner Status
While the Best Actor Golden Globe winners make the Oscars race tighter, Kieran Culkin’s win for Best Supporting Actor separates him from the pack. TheA Real Painstar picked up momentum as awards season continued, andthe old Globes probably would have still awarded Denzel Washington forGladiator II. However, Culkin’s recognition continues his rise toward Oscar glory. He should now be viewed as the favorite to win the Best Supporting Oscar if he wasn’t already in that spot.
What Zoe Saldaña’s Best Supporting Actress Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars
Zoe Saldaña Is The Frontrunner For The Oscar
Similarly, Zoe Saldaña winning Best Supporting Actress forEmilia Pérezat the Golden Globes just solidifies that this is her category to lose at the Oscars.Ariana Grande had come on strong forWickedpreviously, and there was some thought that she’d win the Globes and make awards season a bit tougher for Saldaña. Instead, theEmilia Pérezstar should continue to give acceptance speeches and be recognized for her performance in a non-franchise film throughout the remainder of the awards season. That is unless Grande manages to turn things around.
What Conclave’s Screenplay Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars
Conclave Could Get A Boost Towards Best Picture
Conclavewon a single Golden Globe with Peter Straughan winning Best Screenplay. As expected based on ourGolden Globes 2025 winner predictions, the pope film manages to retain some spotlight in the awards conversation. However, this does not automatically mean it will win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars.The Golden Globes' Best Screenplay winner has not won Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars since 2008.Conclavecould break that trend with hopes of a Screenplay win propelling it to a Best Picture win too. ButEmilia Pérez,Anora, and others are still firmly in the mix.
What Flow’s Best Animated Movie Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars
Flow Beat The Wild Robot & Inside Out 2
Some of thebest animated movies of 2024were represented at the 2025 Golden Globes, andFlowis ultimately the film that won the award. DreamWorks’The Wild Robotand Pixar/Disney’sInside Out 2have more traditional backing behind them, but the Golden Globes win confirmsFlowshould not be discounted from the Oscars race. It was already predicted to be a nominee and viewed as a contender to win. However,The Wild Robotseemed to have more support going into the Globes. The tides could be turning inFlow’s favor now.
What Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross' Best Score Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars
The Challengers Score Still Has Some Hope This Awards Season
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross took home the Golden Globe for Best Score for their work onChallengers, giving the film a boost this awards season. While the film might not earn much recognition elsewhere by Academy voters, this is a positive development for the chances of it earning a Best Original Score Oscar nomination. Reznor and Ross have received some other wins and nominations throughout the awards season, and astwo-time Oscar winners in the category already,Challengerswould be their fourth nomination.
What Emilia Pérez’s Best Original Song Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars
Emilia Pérez Won For “El Mal”
Best Original Song was likely to go toEmilia Pérezone way or another at the Golden Globes, and the Oscars are likely to follow suit on the double nominations of “Mi Camino” and “El Mal.” While Selena Gomez’s song was thought to be in a stronger spot to win, it might be Zoe Saldaña’s number after the Golden Globes. “El Mal” has a building case that it’s the song to beat for the Oscars, although this race is far from over.
What Emilia Pérez’s Best Non-English Feature Golden Globes Win Means For The 2025 Oscars
Will Emilia Pérez Win The International Oscar Too?
Emilia Pérez’s other big win at the 2025 Golden Globes came in Best Non-English Feature. Instead of recognizing another film in this category, Netflix’s musical doubled up with wins here and in Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy. That strengthens the case for the film to win Best International Feature Film as France’s submission. The frontrunner status was already widely considered, especially ifEmilia Pérezstruggles to win Best Picture. This could be one of the film’s highest honors at the2025 Oscarsafter the2025 Golden Globes.
